Structural changes in India’s trade of grapes: A markov approach
M B Nichit, Aparajita P Singh
To access the growth and structural changes taking place in grapes area, production, productivity and trade aspects, and this analysis was carried out for a period of 25 years ranging from 1994-95 to 2019-20. It was done by calculating compound and simple growth statistics and by developing separate transitional matrix for exports and imports. Results regarding area, production, productivity, export quantity and value of exports was calculated. The analysis was attempted through linear programming method to access the transition probabilities for the major grapes export markets of Indian grapes and nations importing grapes to India. It revealed that Germany though with low retention probability, was the most stable export destination of Indian grapes. To the flipside, Netherland, UK, Bangladesh, UAE, Hong Kong, Thailand and Nepal were seen to be the most unstable markets. In conclusion, the growth in production (5.84%) of the world’s largest producer was far behind the simultaneous growth in import quantity (%).The top 5 countries consuming Indian grapes were Netherland, UK, Russia, Bangladesh and Germany. These countries also shows highest growth rates in terms of value which shows more earnings to India for less quantity. It shows positive future for Indian grapes exports. None of the countries depicted negative growth rates in terms of quantity as well as export value for grapes export from India. It shows the export potential at higher growth rate for export of grapes to these 10 major importing countries from India with highest earnings to the Indian farmers.