This study uses annual
data from 1981 to 2019 to evaluate the ideal public debt threshold that would
be consistent with Nigeria's long-term growth goal. It showed overall support
for an inverted U-Shaped relationship between the three categories of public
debt—domestic, external, and total—and economic growth. For total public debt
as a percentage of GDP, the result indicates a threshold level of 41 % (as the
optimal debt benchmark). The implication of this finding is that debt
accumulation in excess of the estimated threshold levels could hurt economic
growth. Against the general notion, the study found no support for external
debt accumulation opportunities. The policy import of our result is, therefore,
the need for government to exercise caution in further debt accumulation, the absence
of such a caution in debt accumulation could result in debt levels that are inconsistent
with the country’s growth objective.
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